Oscar Night!

I love Oscar night. Even though I never see any of these movies until they come out on DVD, I love watching the entire (four-hour-plus-long) show. I'm not even sure why. I think that, unlike the Emmy awards, I'm not terribly invested in the outcome (with some exceptions: Lord of the Rings, The Departed, Martin Scorsese, Leo, Kate Winslet....ok, maybe I am invested) but I don't feel a strong pull toward any of the nominees this year, so hopefully I'll just be able to enjoy the show and the sights (Clooney, Pitt, McAvoy, etc.).

Of course, this also means I can make another round of sure-to-be-wrong predictions. There are many, many people on the Internet better at this than me, but here's my stab at it:

Best Pic: No Country for Old Men. I've actually only seen this and Juno of the nominees, because Netflix let me down re: Michael Clayton. I just think There Will Be Blood is a little too strange, so the academy will go for No Country, which has won pretty much all of the precursors. I think Juno could surpirse, but if Little Miss Sunshine couldn't win last year, I don't think Juno can pull it off this year. (Alt: Juno, If I had a vote: No Country)

Director: The Coen Bros. They've won everything so far. (Alt: Schnabel, My pick: Coens)

Actor: Day-Lewis. The guy makes a movie once every four years and everyone falls all over themselves to honor him for it. (Alt: Clooney, My pick: Viggo)

Actress: Julie Christie. To continue the trend of honoring women who still look amazing in their 60s, started by Helen Mirren last year. And all of this buzz for Cotillard came a wee bit too late, I think. (Alt: Cotillard, My pick: Linney)

Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem. The guy creates the greatest movie villian since Hannibal Lector; of course he's going to win. (Alt: Holbrook, if they want to honor the old people, My pick: Bardem)

Suppoting Actress: This category is a total toss-up, but here's where I think they'll honor the old people. Ruby Dee wins, on the sentimental vote. But Blanchett, Ryan, or Swinton could easily win this one. (Alt: Swinton, My pick: Ryan)

Original Screenplay: Juno

Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men

Costume Design: Atonement

Animated Feature: Ratatouille. Duh.

Cinematography: There Will Be Blood

Documentary: No End in Sight (Unless they really want Michael Moore back up on that stage, and then: Sicko)

Art Direction: Atonement

Editing: Bourne Ultimatum

Visual Effects: Transformers (Giant robots rule all)

Make-up: Pirates 3

Original Score: Atonement

Original Song: "Falling Slowly" Once

Sound Mixing: Transformers

Sound Editing (what's the difference?): Bourne Ultimatum

No one actually cares about the animated short or foreign film awards, so those don't get predictions. I'm looking forward to seeing Amy Adams and Kristen Chenowith perform the songd from Enchanted, and of course, what good are the Oscars without some insane fashion choices? AND: Jon Stewart.

In much, much more depresing news, we'll have the recap/reaction to Episode 8 of 'The Wire" up sometime in the next 24 hours as well. If I'm feeling particularly inspired, I might post from tiem to time during the show tonight, if something pleases me a whole lot, or disappoints me, or shocks me.

Super Bowl Picks

Because we know that about three-quarters of America is watching the game (and the commercials) tonight, it's pointless to do anything but talk about the Super Bowl.

In between rooting for Tom Brady's knees to be taken out, I'll be paying close attention to the commercials, and I'll definitely be recapping them tomorrow on this very blog.

Right now, FOX is doing a package on how the Patriots are "America's Team." That's disgusting. Just gross. What ever happened to America rooting for the underdog?

Anyway, here are our picks for Super Bowl XLII:

Allie: Allie is wearing a Giants shirt to her party tonight, but only because her roommate provided her with one. She's really just in it for the food, and couldn't tell you who might win or what the score might be.

Jenn: Because I'm a Bills fan, and as a rule hate the other two "New York" teams, only truly bizarre circumstances could propel me to root for the Giants tonight. The thought of those Massholes having another reason to celebrate qualifies -- if they win the World Series, Super Bowl, and NBA Championship in the same year, I vote we nuke Boston. Is that too harsh?

I'm ranting. In short, this one looks like a blowout. And I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. Patriots 38, Giants 21. Let the talking heads begin re-writing the history books. In the words of Kissing Suzy Kolber:

"Enjoy whatever boozy party you happen to visit. If you're gonna drive drunk, make sure to mow down any celebrating Pats fans you might see in the street. No worries; no jury will convict you."

I'm off to hope for the impossible. LET'S GO GIANTS!!!

SAG Awards Preview

The Screen Actors Guild Awards air tonight at 8pm on TNT and TBS. Since the Writer's Guild is not picketing this show, all of the actors will actually be able to attend without crossing picket lines. If (God forbid) the Oscars were picketed and/or reduced to a press conference, this event becomes the only awards event to actually take place with the stars.

<--- Completely gratutious Clooney picture.

Here's a preview of what to expect, along with my complete shot-in-the-dark predictions.

Drama Ensemble: Boston Legal, The Closer, Grey's Anatomy, Mad Men, The Sopranos

This category is actually fairly easy: Boston Legal is a joke, Grey's really went downhill fast last year, and I don't think The Closer is actually a serious contender. So, the actors could go the way of the Emmys, which honored The Sopranos with the best drama award and a ridiculous tribute, or the way of the Golden Globes, which honored the up-and-comer, Mad Men. I think the actors are looking to pay tribute to "the greatest American TV drama ever" (or so some say), and they'll honor The Sopranos.

Comedy Ensemble: 30 Rock, Desperate Housewives, Entourage, Ugly Betty, The Office

Again, I don't think this one's too hard either. Entourage didn't have a great season, Ugly Betty is last year's news, The Office is last year's winner (and had a rocky start to this season), and Housewives has already won twice. Meanwhile, 30 Rock is riding a wave of critical adoration. That's my pick.

Actor in a drama series: James Gandolfini (The Sopranos), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Hugh Laurie (House), James Spader (Boston Legal)

This is a tough one: Laurie won last year, but he gives amazing acceptance speeches, and he still carries his show. Hamm just won the Golden Globe for this role, and Hall is long overdue for some kind of recognition for his incredible work as serial killer/good guy Dexter Morgan. But my hunch is that the actors will right the wrong of the Emmys, when everyone and their dog thought that the 'James' honored that night wouldn't be Spader, but Gandolfini.

Actress in a drama series: Glenn Close (Damages), Edie Falco (The Sopranos), Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters), Holly Hunter (Amazing Grace), Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)

I don't watch any of these shows, so here's a complete stab: if this is going to be a night to honor the Sopranos, Falco will complete the sweep. But I don't think they'll get all three, so I'm going with Sedgwick, who's been nominated three years straight now.

Actor in a comedy series: Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Steve Carell (The Office), Ricky Gervais (Extras), Tony Shalhoub (Monk), Jeremy Piven (Entourage)

I think the only one you can rule out is Carell, who has already has his turn. Baldwin won last year, but Jack Donaghy is one of the best characters on TV right now. I don't get it, but apparently, Ricky Gervais is really funny, and since his show just went off the air, maybe they'll honor him. Jeremy Piven wins everything when he's in the supporting categories, and Ari Gold was the only watchable thing about Entourage this year. And then there's Shalhoub, who, despite me never being aware that his show is still on (when does it actually air?), seems to sneak up on people and win random awards. Total toss-up, but I'm going with Gervais.

Actress in a comedy series: Christina Applegate (Samantha Who?), American Ferrara (Ugly Betty), Tina Fey (30 Rock), Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty), Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)

Though I'd love to see Syracuse alum Williams win, this is Tina Fey's award for the taking. And seriously, who doesn't love Tina Fey?

Those are the TV categories, and in case anyone cares, I'm predicting Daniel Day-Lewis, Julie Christie, Javier Bardem, and Cate Blanchett for the movie awards, with No Country for Old Men taking the top prize, best ensemble. For the complete nominees, go here.

I'll check back in tomorrow night to survey the carnage of my predictions. Also coming tomorrow night/Monday morning: Allie's recap of The Wire, Episode 4, and my reaction to that unbelievably intense episode.